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2016 President · MT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 49%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.75% · Republican 56.17%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 49 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.746 − 56.168 = -20.422
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-20.422) = 7.423
  4. Absolute miss = |7.423| = 7.423

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47909, race ID 628 (538 database).