Skip to content

2016 Senate · NV

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,010 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.10% · Republican 44.67%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.099 − 44.670 = 2.429
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.429) = -2.429
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.429| = 2.429

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47911, race ID 63 (538 database).