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2016 President · NV

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,010 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 42%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 42 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (2.417) = -1.417
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.417| = 1.417

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47911, race ID 635 (538 database).