Skip to content

2016 President · NJ

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 724 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 35%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.45% · Republican 41.35%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 35 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.453 − 41.350 = 14.103
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (14.103) = 5.897
  4. Absolute miss = |5.897| = 5.897

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47913, race ID 633 (538 database).