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2016 President · ND

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 279 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 53%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.23% · Republican 62.96%

R+35.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 53 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.227 − 62.956 = -35.729
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-35.729) = 13.729
  4. Absolute miss = |13.729| = 13.729

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47917, race ID 630 (538 database).