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2016 Senate · ND

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 279 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 71%

R+44.0

The certified result

Democrat 16.97% · Republican 78.48%

R+61.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 71 = -44.00
  2. Actual margin = 16.968 − 78.478 = -61.510
  3. Signed miss = -44.00 − (-61.510) = 17.510
  4. Absolute miss = |17.510| = 17.510

The poll overstated the Democrat by 17.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47917, race ID 77 (538 database).