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2016 Senate · OK

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 472 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 62%

R+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 24.58% · Republican 67.74%

R+43.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 62 = -27.00
  2. Actual margin = 24.579 − 67.739 = -43.160
  3. Signed miss = -27.00 − (-43.160) = 16.160
  4. Absolute miss = |16.160| = 16.160

The poll overstated the Democrat by 16.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47919, race ID 76 (538 database).