Skip to content

2016 President · SC

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,762 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 45%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.67% · Republican 54.94%

R+14.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 45 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.673 − 54.939 = -14.266
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-14.266) = 12.266
  4. Absolute miss = |12.266| = 12.266

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47923, race ID 642 (538 database).