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2016 President · TN

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 51%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.72% · Republican 60.72%

R+26.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 51 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.716 − 60.722 = -26.006
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-26.006) = 13.006
  4. Absolute miss = |13.006| = 13.006

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47925, race ID 644 (538 database).