Skip to content

2016 President · WA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 745 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 34%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.54% · Republican 36.83%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 34 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.539 − 36.833 = 15.706
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (15.706) = 3.294
  4. Absolute miss = |3.294| = 3.294

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47930, race ID 649 (538 database).