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2016 Governor · WV

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 321 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 43%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.09% · Republican 42.30%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 43 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.087 − 42.304 = 6.783
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (6.783) = -7.783
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.783| = 7.783

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47931, race ID 59 (538 database).