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2016 President · WV

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 321 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 58%

R+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 26.43% · Republican 68.50%

R+42.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 58 = -31.00
  2. Actual margin = 26.426 − 68.499 = -42.073
  3. Signed miss = -31.00 − (-42.073) = 11.073
  4. Absolute miss = |11.073| = 11.073

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47931, race ID 651 (538 database).