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2016 President · WI

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,195 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 42%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 47.22%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 42 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.454 − 47.218 = -0.764
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-0.764) = 2.764
  4. Absolute miss = |2.764| = 2.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47932, race ID 650 (538 database).