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2016 Senate · WI

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,195 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 49%

even

The certified result

Democrat 46.81% · Republican 50.17%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.811 − 50.173 = -3.362
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-3.362) = 3.362
  4. Absolute miss = |3.362| = 3.362

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47932, race ID 71 (538 database).