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2016 President · WY

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 251 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 22% · Republican 62%

R+40.0

The certified result

Democrat 21.88% · Republican 68.17%

R+46.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 22 − 62 = -40.00
  2. Actual margin = 21.877 − 68.173 = -46.296
  3. Signed miss = -40.00 − (-46.296) = 6.295
  4. Absolute miss = |6.295| = 6.295

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47933, race ID 652 (538 database).