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2016 President · M1

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 375 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.8% · Republican 42.5%

D+6.3

The certified result

Democrat 53.96% · Republican 39.15%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.8 − 42.5 = 6.30
  2. Actual margin = 53.958 − 39.151 = 14.807
  3. Signed miss = 6.30 − (14.807) = -8.507
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.507| = 8.507

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47935, race ID 8715 (538 database).