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2016 President · M2

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 375 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43.6% · Republican 42.2%

D+1.4

The certified result

Democrat 40.98% · Republican 51.27%

R+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.6 − 42.2 = 1.40
  2. Actual margin = 40.976 − 51.265 = -10.289
  3. Signed miss = 1.40 − (-10.289) = 11.688
  4. Absolute miss = |11.688| = 11.688

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47936, race ID 8716 (538 database).