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2016 President · ME

Maine People's Resource Center · fieldwork ended 2016-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 812 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 37%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 44.87%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 37 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.830 − 44.870 = 2.960
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (2.960) = 2.040
  4. Absolute miss = |2.040| = 2.040

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47997, race ID 623 (538 database).