Skip to content

2016 President · M1

Maine People's Resource Center · fieldwork ended 2016-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 429 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.9% · Republican 33.4%

D+11.5

The certified result

Democrat 53.96% · Republican 39.15%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.9 − 33.4 = 11.50
  2. Actual margin = 53.958 − 39.151 = 14.807
  3. Signed miss = 11.50 − (14.807) = -3.307
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.307| = 3.307

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47998, race ID 8715 (538 database).