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2016 President · M2

Maine People's Resource Center · fieldwork ended 2016-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 382 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 41.4%

R+3.4

The certified result

Democrat 40.98% · Republican 51.27%

R+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 41.4 = -3.40
  2. Actual margin = 40.976 − 51.265 = -10.289
  3. Signed miss = -3.40 − (-10.289) = 6.888
  4. Absolute miss = |6.888| = 6.888

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47999, race ID 8716 (538 database).