Skip to content

2016 Governor · OR

DHM Research · fieldwork ended 2016-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 33%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 43.45%

D+7.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 33 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.617 − 43.453 = 7.164
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (7.164) = 1.836
  4. Absolute miss = |1.836| = 1.836

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48017, race ID 55 (538 database).