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2016 President · OH

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 1,150 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44.15% · Republican 48.54%

R+4.4

The certified result

Democrat 43.56% · Republican 51.69%

R+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.15 − 48.54 = -4.39
  2. Actual margin = 43.558 − 51.688 = -8.130
  3. Signed miss = -4.39 − (-8.130) = 3.740
  4. Absolute miss = |3.740| = 3.740

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48073, race ID 637 (538 database).