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2016 Senate · KS

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 596 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 55%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.24% · Republican 62.17%

R+29.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 55 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.238 − 62.175 = -29.937
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-29.937) = 5.937
  4. Absolute miss = |5.937| = 5.937

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48076, race ID 60 (538 database).