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2016 President · KS

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 624 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 49%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.05% · Republican 56.66%

R+20.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 49 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.052 − 56.655 = -20.603
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-20.603) = 9.602
  4. Absolute miss = |9.602| = 9.602

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48076, race ID 618 (538 database).