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2016 President · national

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.182) = -2.181
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.181| = 2.181

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48077, race ID 94 (538 database).