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2016 Senate · AZ

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 46%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.75% · Republican 53.71%

R+13.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 46 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.749 − 53.710 = -12.961
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-12.961) = 6.962
  4. Absolute miss = |6.962| = 6.962

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48078, race ID 87 (538 database).