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2016 President · MO

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 650 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 52%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.13% · Republican 56.77%

R+18.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 52 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.135 − 56.772 = -18.637
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-18.637) = 3.637
  4. Absolute miss = |3.637| = 3.637

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48081, race ID 626 (538 database).