2016 President · PA
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 681 respondents · IVR/Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 43%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.47% · Republican 48.18%
R+0.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 43 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 47.465 − 48.183 = -0.718
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-0.718) = 2.718
- Absolute miss = |2.718| = 2.718
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48086, race ID 640 (538 database).