2016 Senate · PA
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 681 respondents · IVR/Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 41%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.34% · Republican 48.77%
R+1.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 41 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 47.341 − 48.774 = -1.433
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (-1.433) = 7.432
- Absolute miss = |7.432| = 7.432
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48086, race ID 86 (538 database).