2016 Senate · PA
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 612 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 47%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.34% · Republican 48.77%
R+1.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 47.341 − 48.774 = -1.433
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.433) = 2.432
- Absolute miss = |2.432| = 2.432
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48101, race ID 86 (538 database).