2016 Senate · CO
Lucid · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 972 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 41%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.97% · Republican 44.31%
D+5.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 41 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 49.971 − 44.306 = 5.665
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (5.665) = 2.335
- Absolute miss = |2.335| = 2.335
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48103, race ID 74 (538 database).