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2016 President · NV

Lucid · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 892 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 38%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 38 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (2.417) = 4.583
  4. Absolute miss = |4.583| = 4.583

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48104, race ID 635 (538 database).