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2016 Senate · NH

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 525 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.98% · Republican 47.84%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.981 − 47.844 = 0.137
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.137) = 1.862
  4. Absolute miss = |1.862| = 1.862

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48109, race ID 85 (538 database).