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2016 Senate · OH

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 525 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 49%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.16% · Republican 58.03%

R+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 49 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.158 − 58.029 = -20.871
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-20.871) = 12.871
  4. Absolute miss = |12.871| = 12.871

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48111, race ID 67 (538 database).