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2016 President · NC

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 1,150 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44.16% · Republican 49.13%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.17% · Republican 49.83%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.16 − 49.13 = -4.97
  2. Actual margin = 46.173 − 49.828 = -3.655
  3. Signed miss = -4.97 − (-3.655) = -1.315
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.315| = 1.315

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48122, race ID 629 (538 database).