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2016 Senate · UT

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 61%

R+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.06% · Republican 68.15%

R+41.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 61 = -33.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.058 − 68.146 = -41.088
  3. Signed miss = -33.00 − (-41.088) = 8.088
  4. Absolute miss = |8.088| = 8.088

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48191, race ID 73 (538 database).