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2016 Senate · NH

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41.6% · Republican 44.4%

R+2.8

The certified result

Democrat 47.98% · Republican 47.84%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.6 − 44.4 = -2.80
  2. Actual margin = 47.981 − 47.844 = 0.137
  3. Signed miss = -2.80 − (0.137) = -2.938
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.938| = 2.938

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48194, race ID 85 (538 database).