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2016 President · TX

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 49%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.23% · Republican 52.23%

R+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 49 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.235 − 52.235 = -9.000
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-9.000) = -0.001
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.001| = 0.001

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48210, race ID 645 (538 database).