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2016 President · AZ

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 719 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 45%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.13% · Republican 48.67%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 45 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.125 − 48.670 = -3.545
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-3.545) = -1.454
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.454| = 1.454

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48211, race ID 605 (538 database).