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2016 Senate · AZ

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 719 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 55%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.75% · Republican 53.71%

R+13.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 55 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.749 − 53.710 = -12.961
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-12.961) = -3.038
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.038| = 3.038

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48211, race ID 87 (538 database).