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2016 President · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2016-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 1,150 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.22% · Republican 47.44%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.216 − 47.439 = -0.223
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-0.223) = 3.223
  4. Absolute miss = |3.223| = 3.223

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48212, race ID 624 (538 database).