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2016 President · ND

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 153 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 26.18% · Republican 49.74%

R+23.6

The certified result

Democrat 27.23% · Republican 62.96%

R+35.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26.18 − 49.74 = -23.56
  2. Actual margin = 27.227 − 62.956 = -35.729
  3. Signed miss = -23.56 − (-35.729) = 12.169
  4. Absolute miss = |12.169| = 12.169

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48245, race ID 630 (538 database).