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2016 President · PA

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 2,606 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 46%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.47% · Republican 48.18%

R+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.465 − 48.183 = -0.718
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.718) = 1.718
  4. Absolute miss = |1.718| = 1.718

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48260, race ID 640 (538 database).