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2016 Governor · NH

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2016-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 695 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 47%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.57% · Republican 48.84%

R+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 47 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.573 − 48.842 = -2.269
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-2.269) = -1.730
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.730| = 1.730

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48263, race ID 54 (538 database).