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2016 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 898 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44.4% · Republican 43.9%

D+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.4 − 43.9 = 0.50
  2. Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
  3. Signed miss = 0.50 − (2.182) = -1.681
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.681| = 1.681

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48266, race ID 94 (538 database).