2016 Senate · NC
Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,169 respondents · IVR/Online Panel · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 48%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.37% · Republican 51.06%
R+5.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 45.366 − 51.062 = -5.696
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-5.696) = 2.696
- Absolute miss = |2.696| = 2.696
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48326, race ID 62 (538 database).