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2016 President · NH

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,001 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 43%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 46.46%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 43 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.826 − 46.459 = 0.367
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (0.367) = -2.368
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.368| = 2.368

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48338, race ID 632 (538 database).