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2016 President · AZ

Data Orbital · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 47%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.13% · Republican 48.67%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 47 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.125 − 48.670 = -3.545
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-3.545) = -4.454
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.454| = 4.454

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48342, race ID 605 (538 database).