Skip to content

2016 Senate · AZ

Data Orbital · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 52%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.75% · Republican 53.71%

R+13.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 52 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.749 − 53.710 = -12.961
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-12.961) = 1.962
  4. Absolute miss = |1.962| = 1.962

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48342, race ID 87 (538 database).