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2016 Governor · IN

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 399 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 38%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.42% · Republican 51.38%

R+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 38 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.423 − 51.375 = -5.952
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-5.952) = 9.952
  4. Absolute miss = |9.952| = 9.952

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48346, race ID 49 (538 database).